Slumping Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Neighbour Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, December 10, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Mel Tucker - Slumping Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Neighbour Jacksonville Jaguars

Analysis:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had some surprise success last season, but the NFL's youngest team is finally going through its growing pains, which has led to some uncertainty for 2012.

Things are just as murky for the Jacksonville Jaguars going forward, as they are set to open next season with a new owner and possibly a new head coach.

There is still football to be played in 2011 for the two clubs, who get together this Sunday at EverBank Field. For the Bucs, they'll be looking to snap a six-game slide, while the Jags take a second shot at getting interim head coach Mel Tucker his first victory.

The youthful Buccaneers turned some heads last year with a surprise 10-6 record that saw them just miss out on a playoff spot. That wasn't expected given the roster's current average age is 25 years and 326 days old, but it appears that inexperience has caught up with Tampa this year.

The Bucs got off to a solid 4-2 start, but have lost six straight since and four in a row on the road overall. Their youth showed in last Sunday's 38-19 loss to Carolina, as the Tampa Bay defense allowed Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton to rush for three touchdowns and throw for one as well.

The Buccaneers also racked up nine penalties for 73 yards in the defeat.

Tampa Bay played without quarterback Josh Freeman due to an injured right shoulder, but appears to be on track to return this weekend. Josh Johnson started in his place and the Bucs were held to four first-half field goals until a late touchdown pass the backup threw to Dezmon Briscoe.

The Bucs are trying to avoid their first seven-game losing streak since they began the 2009 season 0-7, while the Jags will be looking to snap a three-game slide that followed a victory over the winless Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 13.

Jacksonville capped a big week of change with a 38-14 setback to San Diego on Monday in Tucker's debut as head coach. He took over on an interim basis when Jack Del Rio was fired the previous Tuesday on the same day that owner Wayne Weaver announced an agreement to sell the team to Illinois businessman Shahid Khan.

The Jaguars, who will try to salvage the finale of a three-game homestand, actually led 14-10 late in the second quarter before the Chargers rattled off 28 straight points.

Monday night's loss began a stretch of three games in 10 days for the Jags, who visit the Atlanta Falcons next Thursday.

The Buccaneers and Jaguars have faced one another four times previously in regular-season play, with Jacksonville winning the three most recent matchups that followed a 17-16 road loss to Tampa in its inaugural season of 1995. The Jags have topped the Bucs twice at EverBank Field, coming through with a 29-24 decision in 1998 and a 17-10 verdict in 2003, and also edged the Bucs by a 24-23 count in Tampa in 2007.

Tucker and Raheem Morris will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time as head coaches.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Last Week's results:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) loses to visiting Carolina Panthers 38-19.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) loses to visiting San Diego Chargers 38-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) loses outright
- Underdog Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) loses and does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Buccaneers -3, O/U 41

Next up:
- Tampa Bay home to Dallas Cowboys, Saturday, December 17
- Jacksonville at Atlanta Falcons, Thursday, December 15

Morris said on Monday that he is cutting back on his defensive scheme with the team ranked 30th in total defense and points allowed. The Bucs are one of the most penalized teams in the league as well.

Freeman missed last week’s 38-19 loss to the Carolina Panthers with a right shoulder injury but is expected to return to face Jacksonville. The third-year QB posted a 95.9 passer rating with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions last season. This season, those numbers are a 74.6 rating, 12 touchdowns and 16 picks.

Blaine Gabbert is completing just 49.5 percent of his passes and has a 64.5 rating. The No. 10 overall pick has not posted a single-game rating above 90 since Week 5 and spent a good part of Monday’s 38-14 home loss to San Diego throwing passes into the ground and making questionable decisions.

Jacksonville is also dealing with problems in the secondary, where they have put three cornerbacks on injured reserve in the last three weeks. Tucker can still lean on Maurice Jones-Drew, who took over the NFL rushing lead with 1,137 yards.

The Buccaneers have to feel good about their chances to score once they enter Jaguars' territory, given that kicker Connor Barth has made 13 straight field goals, three shy of the club record held by Martin Gramatica and Michael Husted. Last weekend, Barth became just the third player in NFL history to connect on four or more field goals of 40-plus yards in one half. He was good on tries from 50, 47, 46 and 44 yards out.

Jones-Drew figures to be the deciding factor as to whether the Jaguars can put up some points. After Carolina ran for 163 yards with four touchdowns and averaged 4.2 yards per carry versus the Bucs last weekend, Tucker should lean on his best player in this one. This will be Jones-Drew's first shot at the Buccaneers as a featured back. He has faced them only once before, back in the 2007 season. He ran for 48 yards on 10 carries and added two catches in that game.

Playing in front of their potential new owner on Monday, the Jaguars watched the Chargers score the game's first 10 points before posting a pair of touchdowns to take the lead and grab some momentum. However, San Diego scored twice in the final 1:26 of the first half to deflate the Jags and drop them to 0-6 when their opponent scores first. Jacksonville needs to run on some emotion in this one and hit the gas pedal early.

Jones-Drew needs one touchdown to match Fred Taylor (70) for the franchise record.

Tampa Bay RB LeGarrette Blount had a streak of two straight 100-yard games stopped last week, when he was held to 19 yards on 11 carries.

Jacksonville placed DE John Chick on injured reserve with a knee injury suffered Monday.

Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road

Sunday's meeting between the Jags and Bucs is simply part of both team's auditions for next year. For Jacksonville, change will be coming in a big way as it tries to figure out what is going wrong and what needs to be fixed. Tucker is also trying to show he has what it takes to be an NFL head coach, and wins are a good way to do that.

Morris, meanwhile, is looking to figure out which of his young players are progressing and which are failing to grow. A healthy Freeman will certainly boost the Tampa offense, but the Bucs don't stand a chance if they can't stop Jones-Drew, the best player on the field this Sunday.

Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!

NFL Football Pick: Take Jaguars.

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atlanta falcons - blaine gabbert - cam newton - carolina panthers - connor barth - dallas cowboys - dezmon briscoe - everbank field - jacksonville jaguars - john chick

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